The second meeting between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens will take place in Week 10 odds at M&T Bank Stadium. The Ravens enter this AFC North clash as 6.5-point favorites and currently stand two games up on the Browns in the division.
With Jerome Ford taking over the lead-back role last week with a dominating snap share, have the oddsmakers made an excessive adjustment to Kareem Hunt’s rushing total in a game that might witness a significant amount of running?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Browns vs. Ravens on November 12.
Browns vs Ravens odds
Browns vs Ravens predictions
Kareem Hunt enters Week 10 with a rushing total of just 23.5 yards while Jerome Ford sits as high as 44.5 yards. A lot of that has to do with Ford outsnapping Hunt significantly last week 45 to 21 in the one-sided shutout vs. the Cardinals.
Despite that, Hunt still had 14 carries on 21 snaps (38 yards), which was similar to his usage the week before where he ran 14 times on 27 snaps for 55 yards. Hunt doesn’t need a 50% snap share to get his double-digit carries as the Cleveland Browns are still one of the heaviest run-first teams at 48% on the year, which ranks third in football — behind the Baltimore Ravens who sit in first.
The Browns ran the ball just 24 times in the Week 4 meeting against the Ravens, but a lot of that had to do with starting quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson throwing three picks and Cleveland trailing 21-3 at the half.
Hunt and the Browns enter Sunday as a 6.5-point dog, which might be a reason why bettors are seeing such a low rushing number. However, this is still going to be another tight AFC North battle that could see a ton of running on both sides.
Worst-case scenario, the Browns might employ all three running backs, a strategy they implemented last week. However, even in such a scenario, Hunt managed to handle his workload effectively. Additionally, the limited practice participation of No. 3 back Pierre Strong this week could further contribute to an increased share of snaps for Hunt.
With the advantage of running behind one of the top offensive lines in football, the current valuation already accounts for Hunt’s snap share and potential game script. Hunt stands as a potential first-half cash for his rushing yards prop, especially if he secures early-down opportunities.
My best bet: Kareem Hunt Over 23.5 rushing yards (-110)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Browns vs Ravens same-game parlay
Kareem Hunt Over 23.5 rushing yardsKareem Hunt anytime TDBrowns +6.5
+700 at bet365
I’m leaning on a heavy run game from both sides and see a ton of value on Hunt’s props thanks to a lower snap share and projected game script. Hunt doesn’t need 30 snaps to get 15 carries and has had at least three red-zone carries in four straight games.
It’s also hard to swallow the 6.5 on the spread, particularly considering that in the previous meeting in Cleveland, Baltimore was only a 1.5-point favorite and Deshaun Watson was not starting.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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